By American Correspondent Mark Stone
All decisions have intended consequences and unintended consequences.
The intended result of President Biden’s threat to end arms shipments to Israel is straightforward: to stall the Israeli military in Rafah without a clear, enforceable plan for civilians.
But there are so many unintended consequences.
Both geopolitically and domestically, the decision could haunt President Biden.
Even before we consider the unintended consequence, there is a key point: the danger of imposing red lines.
Too often they turn out to be flawed instruments of geopolitical diplomacy.
What if Netanyahu bulldozes across the red line and breaks into the ledge?
He probably has enough American weapons to store.
Will Biden stick to his threat to cut off arms supplies? or surrender? What message will both of these choices send, far and wide?
This leads to undesirable results. First, regional results:
- Can civilians be victims? If Netanyahu continues Operation Rafah, but with a reduction in American weapons (so-called smart bombs), then he will use less sophisticated “dumb bombs.” This could lead to even more civilian casualties;
- What message does it send regionally? That America may abandon Israel (even though it’s not what Biden said) will not be lost on countries around the world. This shows that America is corrupted by its alliances. For months, Biden has rejected calls to limit arms sales. Now it has flipped. The Gulf countries are already concerned about the stability of America as an ally. While they may agree with his statement last night, the wider message he sends will resonate;
- Does it encourage Iran? Limiting arms to its oldest Middle Eastern allies at a time of deep threat to Israel is seen by some as a gift from Tehran;
- How will this affect the ceasefire talks? It is logical that Hamas sees this decision as a weakening of Israel and therefore can hold out in the ongoing negotiations to get more from them.
Then there are the domestic political ramifications.
They were written by his presidential opponent, Donald Trump, who said: “What Biden is doing with Israel is disgraceful. If any Jew voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves. He has completely abandoned Israel and no one will believe him.”
President Biden has already alienated a core of voters with his existing Gaza policy.
By unequivocally backing Netanyahu, he has angered key Arab-American residents in places like Michigan, a state he is expected to win in November. On top of that, students (many of whom would be natural Biden voters) say they can’t vote for him now, and “Genocide Joe” is their rallying cry.
Now, with his gun announcement, he risks alienating Jewish-American voters. Many are deeply angered by what they see as the abandonment of the Jewish state.
His poorly worded insistence that he will still have Israel’s back on defense will be lost on many voters. They only see the title.
Remember, too, that almost every Republican opposes every leverage he holds on Israel; They do not want unequivocal support for Israel.
But more than that, a significant number of his own Democrats are also uncomfortable with the United States’ arms embargo on Israel. His move is supported only by the progressive left of his party.
This is a dangerous political push and the elections are six months away.
